WRDC CIRCULAR # 003

Twelfth Commemoration of 09 Feb 98 Islamabad International
Conference on Water Reservoirs

The WRDC a component of the Pakistan Water Font is celebrating the 12th anniversary of its landmark international conference in Islamabad. The sad facts are that the recommendations of the Conference duly approved in joint resolution have not been implemented. Today not only Pakistan faces shortages of irrigation water and the spectre of famine but also the energy fiasco leading to great setback in the national economy and its development.

The scenario on 09 Feb 98 is clearly evident from the Facts Sheet as circulated with the wise counsel of late S. S. Kirmani Sahib. He left us on 17 May 98 a few months after the Conference. The brilliant & brief speech of Mr. Hisamuddin Bangash is an eye opener. The other seven exhibits are the equally important advise to the Government of the day for limiting the use of fossil fuels especially imported oil. Tragically the hydel:thermal ratio has gone from 70:30 to 25:75 in real terms. Both matters are inter related. The extent of the Indian factor inside Pakistan has become very clear. The external Indian factor of holding Kashmir captive is also clear as India’s water offensive reaches new & critical levels. There is no other word to describe the present scenario except that it is “the ongoing genocide of the Pakistani nation”.

Some sensitive informative is withheld and can be provided on one to one basis. Let us now understand jointly that the most potentially powerful nation of South Asia is brought to its knees through the water weapon (and imported oil route). Over USD 60bn annual loss due to the water resource & in tandem the nation is subjected to the public domain. This must include water/energy projects as well as the local production & distribution of petroleum products including the furnace oil demand for energy. Similarly for the natural gas/CNG and LPG sectors.

Pakistan Paindabad

Suleman N. Khan
WRDC <09 Feb 10>

How India’s “Water War” leads to genocide

Sweet Water it must be understood is the common resource used for potable/drinking water, irrigated agriculture, municipal / industrial water and is a major factor in the Energy mix as its hydro-electric component. Pakistan’s major assets & their production profile is based on this natural endowment. The IBIS being the biggest national asset with a replacement value today of over USD 500bn equivalent. WAPDA’s dams & barrages in tandem with the provincial distribution infrastructure within & outside the IBIS are part of a priceless hydraulic machine. This asset has been severely if not fatally damaged through a water war of attrition launched by a relentless & cold-blooded upper-riparian neighbor who pursues its water war with a brutal one point agenda. The collapse of Pakistan’s economy she knows will lead to the weakening & ultimate break-up of its Federation with other collateral damage. Hatred & a historical complex drives India. It must be understood that water shortages lead to direct attrition of Pakistan’s Defense capability. Remember the frightful words of the Indian Army COAS circa 2003 “Every opposition to KBD is another nail in the coffin (sarcophagus) of Pakistan’s Defense Capability”.

The major milestones in the Indian water war campaign with its different perspectives.

  1. The first strike was capture of the valley of Jammu & Kashmir in defiance of the agreed formula for the partition of British India. We see that in +62 years she has developed the capability to absolutely control the flow of the Chenab river, hide the additional flows in all three Western rivers (caused by global warming/glacier retreat) and create infrastructure projects with storages & low level gates all against the letter & spirit of the IWT 1960. Her projects have been surreptitious and hidden from international experts. Is she now willing to allow neutral observers full freedom to analyze all Jammu & Kashmir hydro projects including irrigation channels & tunnels?

  2. India’s calculated interruptions of Eastern rivers share started in 1948 and the pressure applied was so consistent & the interference so deep that she managed against all norms of civilized behavior to take 100% flow of all three rivers (Ravi, Beas & Sutlej) under the IWT 1960. Last minute amendments for additional Western river waters were also managed by India in the IWT 1960 under deceptive pretence (now quite apparent).

  3. The third strike was to block (through her Pakistani Lobby) the construction of KBD since 1984. When the IBRD/World Bank successfully conducted the ISO-14000 Environmental Studies by 1987 the internal lobbyists in NWFP became aggressive and an anti-dam KBD lobby emerged also in Sindh province as well. The province that had negligible sweet water aquifers began to oppose storage of sweet water during the two monsoon months. The story of an “impossible consensus” where the scientific facts are shouted down by political expediency & noise.

  4. The fourth strike was to use international players to introduce the concept of imported energy based electricity generation. For the first time a developing country’s national utility was forbidden to build its own thermal stations. A private sector initiative started in 1988 was given the exclusive mandate by 1994. Today the Hydel:Thermal ratio is 25:75 instead of planned 70:30. In 2008-09 Pakistan imported 17mn tons of petroleum products worth USD 11.5mn of which 7mn tons was furnace oil (RFO/HFO) worth nearly USD 5mn. This financial year RFO/HFO inputs will touch + 8mn tons out of estimated petroleum imports of about 20mn tons in this financial year. Pakistan has crossed +120bn units of electrical power generation last year. Please note the impact of expensive private thermal power. The unsustainable & periodic “Circular Debt” is before us. Nation is already wasting + USD 60bn a year due to neglect of its water resource.

  5. The fifth successful strike was in early 2003 with the affirmation by Gen Musharraf that Northern Areas of Pakistan are part of Greater Kashmir. This was like saying that Peshawar, Kohat & Kabul were part of Punjab because Ranjit Singh held administrative sway over them. India’s ICID now ensures that IBRD/WB maynot finance infrastructure projects in Northern Areas under its Kashmir policy. DB Dam is directly affected.

  6. India’s interference does not stop at Diamer Basha dam. She also interferes in the planning of Pakistan’s hydroelectric run of the river mega projects such as Bunji HPP (5,600MW / 20,000 GwH or 7,400MW / 24,000GwH). Surprisingly the time for construction is now shown as +13 years for both DBD & Bunji respectively. A clear case of Indian interference through its international supporters.

 

CONCLUSION:

  1. Is India willing to allow neutral observers to study the entire Occupied J & K hydrology?

  2. Is India willing to accept that the IWT 1960 does not permit diversion of Kashmir waters. Infact non-consumptive use beyond what is allowed for irrigation & power for Occupied J&K from the three western rivers under the IWT 1960?

  3. Is India willing to clarify to the world why she builds the world’s largest single irrigation project & is spending USD 212bn equivalent if she has no new source of sweet water?

 

WRDC / 28 Mar 10