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CIRCULAR# 002
Ref: WRDC / L-817
Dt: 06 Nov 08
WRDC presents its second news letter of 2008
It concerns a matter of critical importance. The worst genocide in human recorded history is presently underway by the Indian Government. The genesis of this genocide was the manipulated and forcible annexation of Jammu & Kashmir in 1947. It is a slow but sure “war by stealth” against Pakistan, the lower riparian, whose prime asset the IBIS (Indus Basin Irrigation System) is being brutally and systematically denuded. This cold blooded & campaign project has the cover of the ICID. Details can be perused in the attached essay by the convener.
How can the civilized world help stop this relentless pursuit by India to destroy Pakistan’s economy and damage its fragile Federation?
P.S. See the IoP (Industrialize or Perish) primer on our website. It is a detailed analysis on the enigma “Why Pakistan’s Economy could not become self sustaining?”
A proposal; CIBSA our response to the ICID challenge
The alarming reduction in Indus Basin waters entering Pakistan during 2008 coupled with the criminal interruption of Chenab Main during the flood season of August & September are definite signs of an orchestrated policy by the Indian Authorities. The advise of Mohammad Ali Jinnah about Kashmir being the main life sustaining artery of Pakistan has to be fully appreciated. The Indians clearly understood its strategic value and manipulated the accession of the State of Jammu & Kashmir. Their actions defied common sense and the democratic values they propagate but for them “the ends justified the means”. I estimate that it is the intention of the Indians to gradually squeeze at least 3MAF annually of our surface water flows. We have to be more perceptive and understand that the water resource is the cause of all our major internal frictions.
The distrust between the provinces over Irrigation waters, pitted brother against brother. The consequential inability of Pakistan to build the critical reservoirs after Tarbela (1974) on the three main western rivers. These became our share of the Indian basin as a result of the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960. These proposed reservoirs were a critical element of the extended “replacement works” that would have kept the Ravi & Sutlej superficially alive through the “Link Canals” we had inherited as part of the IBIS (Indus Basin Irrigation System). Rivers sustain civilizations not just communities. What a mess we have created due to this atmosphere of distrust. If you look deeper the direct Indian factor again emerges. The Indian organization “International Commission for Irrigation & Drainage” established in 1951 has developed an “India First” agenda and through guile & cunning positioned itself in a position of great influence with multilateral institutions & government agencies worldwide. ICID is a dangerous weapon.
The anti-dam lobby became vocal first from the Anti-Pakistan lobby of Walibagh, NWFP. Dams do not create floods they control floods. The 1929 Nowshera valley incident cannot be repeated if we have Tarbela. More dams would mean more regulation. Also why should capillary action of 40 ft be imagined against all laws of physics. The lowest point of NWFP at 955 ft is 40 ft higher than design of KBD max crest level. The rise of the Sindh anti-dam lobby in retrospect gets visible after the birth of Bangladesh. It uses the same ingredients that I do not need to repeat here. The Indians put a successful formula to work and we again went to sleep. Ironical since Sindh needs fresh water more desperately than Punjab because Sindh has negligible sweet water aquifers. Three simple facts of hydrology that our Southern brethren do not want to understand. Firstly that reservoirs need high ground to create storage through the process of “Damming”; and Sindh does not offer such terrain. Secondly that only large dams can be built on large rivers and it is the need of the gigantic IBIS infrastructure. It is critically water short. By 2000 AD there was less than 1AF of water for every Pakistani. This is a disaster. Thirdly it is the extra flow of the short flood/monsoon season that will be stored in the proposed KBD & others. This will allow the main rivers to be kept vibrant for the remaining 10 months. Punjab has already conceded max share to Sindh from any new reservoir under the 1991 Water Accord.
Electric Power generation from imported oil is too expensive & unreliable for a viable industrial growth and even sustainability. Tubewell pumping of aquifers is indeed also not fully viable for agricultural growth. Mined water lacks the rich minerals of flowing river waters but is extensively used when there is no alternate resource. It may be appreciated that nearly 40 MAF water is pumped annually in Punjab & NWFP. This is not only expensive water but we are also depleting this resource.
I believe that the 1951 ten page report of Mr. David Lilienthal prepared with the blessings of President Truman and conveyed by Mr. Eugene Black (President IBRD) to Prime Minister Liaqat Ali Khan on 06 Sep 1951 is the most authentic commentary on the inequitable distribution of hydro assets in 1947 by the British Imperial rulers. Its reference to KASHMIR in the context of water supply and the potential for Indian mischief makes it an eternal message for the Pakistani nation. It is an unbiased and professional analysis. This report did not recommend the surrender of three Eastern rivers to India. Tragic blunders were committed by Pakistan in the negotiation of the Indus Waters Treaty 1960. Does India now consider this “Treaty” as relevant?
I estimate that the Indian factor; its interference in our Indus Basin flows (directly & indirectly) has already inflicted a loss of over USD one trillion plus on Pakistan’s nascent economy. This loss will now grow exponentially because the loss has snowballed into an energy crisis resulting in a catastrophe for our industrial & commercial economy. The Hydel to thermal ratio has become 30:70, ie: completely lopsided. The ratio of 70:30 was declared as the national electric energy goal. Ideally a zero thermal energy policy should be pursued but Indus basin flows are having extreme variations; some years more than 33 times from minimum to maximum. Therefore an unavoidable element of 30% thermal energy was determined after great reflection & analysis.
Having been frustrated in our attempts to develop more hydropower we became suicidal and starting in 1988 accelerating by 1992 and consummating by 1994 produced an IPP policy that was shortsighted, hazardous, unrealistic and therefore unsustainable. It is said that several Indian executives in the IBRD enthusiastically supported Mr. Shahid Hassan Khan when he mooted the idea as Energy Adviser to the Ministry of Water & Power. Let us recall that this IPP policy was based primarily on imported energy. Not to run an industrial estate or a vital defense establishment with imported oil but to light the streets & hamlets of impoverished Pakistan. The popular fuel of choice being RFO/HFO (furnace oil) pegged at its 1994 rate of around Rs 2,750. In 2008 it had touched around Rs 55,000 and the difference is payable by the GoP ie: the people of Pakistan. Pakistan imported around 17.5mn tons of Petroleum products & crude oil worth about USD 11.5bn in financial year 2007-08. Over 5mn tons was RFO/HFO. The huge current account deficit & load-shedding regime is before us.
I now summary the recommendations:-
I) Water is the most important endowment for our agrarian economy. The IBIS an asset with replacement value, today, of more than USD 500bn is our prime national asset. We have not been able to optimize and utilize this vital gift. Our irrigated agriculture can be increased from 42mn acres to 63mn acres within 10 years. Triple cropping patterns will emerge when water is plentiful. Agro based industry would flourish. Let us jointly understand its potential to break the poverty cycle & enrich our coming generations. We may revive the TVA concept which is the basis of WAPDA but handover the Power Distribution/Discos to the provinces as per the 1973 Constitution. The IPP thermal private policy of 1994 based on the failed California model maybe rejected as it is unsustainable. It has failed in California & also in Pakistan.
II) The Indian factor is all-pervasive. Our nation has been complacent & callous. A strategic commission utilizing the best of the civilian & military talent has to be assembled if Pakistan is to optimize its vital national asset & water resource both for its irrigation and energy potential. Let us not forget that a very conservative estimate of our hydel potential is +40,000MW generating annually over 200bn units (200,000 GWh). This is more than double of Pakistan’s electric generation today. Let a commission be formed to counter India’s ICID which has become a Frankenstein for weaker nations. The position of the World Bank (IBRD) and others on Diamer Basha Dam project is a direct result of Indian Mechanizations through ICID. We need to counter this menace. I propose an organization with the title “Commission of Indus Basin Strategic Analysis” (CIBSA). The Indus Waters Commissioner should receive data & analysis from this Group. It may also give advise against undertaking projects such as a 270m high roller compacted concrete dam in a seismic zone. My reference is to Diamer Basha whose design definitely needs a review in the interest of safety. It may be built in tandem with KBD.
III) Let us understand that global warning & subsequent glacier retreat is a reality. I estimate that the inflow of Indus, Jhelum & Chenab will increase by about 40 MAF (annually) for the next 30 to 50 years. India will never disclose this and we are receiving reports of tunneling between Chenab & Ravi. India has launched in 2006 the World’s largest single irrigation project estimated to cost over USD 212bn. This River Linking project is clearly predicating the theft of Pakistan’s waters flowing through Jammu & Kashmir. CIBSA must help us fully understand and then educate the world about this menacing & dangerous enterprise. India had by 2003 already achieved more than 250MAF storage representing more than 30% of its surface flows.
CONCLUSION: Pakistan incidentally has now less than 8% of storage capability of its 145MAF annual surface flow. The role of sweet water is central to Pakistan’s financial sustainability and survival. It is blessed with five of the seven largest glaciers on the planet. India has to be stopped from its inhuman & illegal intentions; a recipe for genocide of the Pakistani nation & God forbid destruction of its Federation. The region could become a nuclear flashpoint due to this inhuman Indian policy. Ofcourse they are using the enslaved people of Jammu & Kashmir as pawns in a deadly game against Pakistan. Our people can offer India good neighborliness and a common market if it will step back from its intentions and stop further mischief.
Pakistan Paindabad
Convener WRDC / Engr. Suleman N.Khan
e-mail: info@wrdc.com.pk
06 Nov 08